Written by James · 29.08.2026 · 5 min read
The last Grand Slam of the year is here — and the US Open 2026 has already made headlines before a single ball is struck. World No. 1 Jannik Sinner is out injured. Defending champion Carlos Alcaraz is back after months on the sidelines. And on the women’s side, Aryna Sabalenka is chasing a historic three-peat. So who’s actually the favorite? Who’s missing? And which underdogs could light up New York? Here’s your full ATP and WTA breakdown.
Men’s Draw: Sinner’s Absence Changes Everything
This is giving serious French Open flashback energy — just with the roles flipped. Last time it was Alcaraz who was absent; now it’s Jannik Sinner. The world No. 1, 2024 US Open champion, 2025 finalist, and reigning Wimbledon title holder is out with a knee injury — and he had to pull out despite an absolutely ridiculous season record of 44 wins and just 3 losses. His withdrawal blows the draw wide open, kills any chance of a rematch with Alcaraz in the final, and hands a massive opportunity to everyone else. Whoever steps up could be walking away with the biggest title of their career.
Alcaraz: The Biggest Question Mark in the Draw
Sure, Carlos Alcaraz sits at the top of the betting odds — but there’s a giant asterisk next to his name. The defending champion and seven-time Major winner is gunning for his third US Open title, yet he’s arriving with more questions than answers. He hasn’t played a competitive match since a wrist injury in April. Zero warm-up tournaments. Four months off the tour completely. How solid is that wrist, really?
And what about match sharpness? On a fast hard court where every serve and return has to be dialed in, ring rust can cost you rounds fast. Is this still the explosive, take-no-prisoners Carlitos we know — or does he need a few matches just to find his legs? Alcaraz is less a clear-cut favorite and more the most fascinating wildcard in the entire draw. Don’t fade him, but definitely don’t trust him blindly either.
Zverev and Djokovic: One Hunter, One Riddle
If anyone’s best positioned to capitalize on this wide-open draw, it’s Alexander Zverev. The French Open champion has been one of the most consistent players all season, he’s seeded No. 1, and he desperately wants his first US Open title. That said, a round-of-16 exit in Cincinnati wasn’t exactly the form statement he needed heading in.
Novak Djokovic, meanwhile, is a walking question mark. At 39 years old and ranked fifth in the world, he lost in the second round in Cincinnati to world No. 50 Thiago Tirante, complained about the heat, and even hinted at retirement. And yet — he reached the Australian Open final and the Wimbledon semis earlier this year. Over five sets at a Major, the 24-time Grand Slam champion hunting title No. 25 is never truly out of it. One juicy subplot: Djokovic has landed in Alcaraz’s half of the draw. If both find their form, we could get that blockbuster semifinal instead of having to wait for the final.
Men’s Underdogs Worth Watching
An open draw is where underdogs thrive — and right now, nobody is hotter than Arthur Fils. The Frenchman just won his first Masters 1000 title in Cincinnati the week before the tournament (beating Frances Tiafoe in the final), and he’s riding a serious wave of momentum into Flushing Meadows. Equally dangerous is Italy’s Flavio Cobolli: the fifth seed, French Open finalist, and Wimbledon quarterfinalist brings an aggressive, attacking style that is absolutely built for fast hard courts.
From the American side, Brandon Nakashima is forcing his way into the conversation — the Cincinnati semifinalist has been one of the best hard-court players of the entire summer. Then there’s the next generation: 19-year-old Spaniard Rafael Jodar and Brazilian phenom João Fonseca both have the firepower to trouble any top seed on a given day. And let’s not sleep on Ben Shelton (defending Toronto champion) and Taylor Fritz (2024 US Open finalist) — two Americans who absolutely love the fast, loud courts of New York with a home crowd behind them.
Women’s Draw: Sabalenka Goes for the Three-Peat
On the women’s side, Aryna Sabalenka is the name. The world No. 1 won the US Open 2026’s two previous editions — 2024 and 2025 — and now she’s going for three straight on her favorite surface. She heads the favorites list, and honestly, it’s hard to argue with that. But the field behind her is stacked. Iga Swiatek, home hope Coco Gauff (the 2023 champion), and last year’s finalist Jessica Pegula are all genuine title contenders. This is not a one-woman show.
What makes the 2026 women’s draw genuinely wild is this: every single Grand Slam winner from this year is in the same draw in New York. Elena Rybakina won the Australian Open. The 19-year-old Mirra Andreeva took the French Open. Linda Noskova claimed her first Major title at Wimbledon. That many fresh champions in one place? Picking a single favorite feels almost pointless — and that’s exactly what makes it so exciting.
Women’s Underdogs — and the Key Absences
The upset potential in the women’s draw is massive. Naomi Osaka is always a force on hard courts — full stop. Amanda Anisimova reached the final here last year and knows how to perform on this stage. Alexandra Eala, who beat Swiatek at Wimbledon, is clearly hungry for her next big moment. And Marta Kostyuk has been one of the hottest players on tour since April, having won her first WTA 1000 title in Madrid in the spring. Oh, and keep an eye on 20-year-old Czech Sara Bejlek, who won her first WTA title as a qualifier in Abu Dhabi — this kid is the real deal.
On the absence front, the one that stings the most beyond Sinner is Emma Raducanu. The woman who wrote one of tennis’s greatest fairytales right here in New York back in 2021 — as an 18-year-old qualifier, no less — is out with a stress fracture. Gutting. Also missing on the women’s side is rising Canadian star Victoria Mboko (knee), while on the men’s side Jack Draper has pulled out with an arm injury.
US Open 2026: Two Weeks of Pure Drama
A defending champion missing, a title holder coming back rusty, a world No. 1 chasing history, and a pack of hungry underdogs ready to pounce — the US Open 2026 has all the ingredients for two weeks of absolute chaos. From the first serve to the last point, this one is going to be special. And that’s exactly the kind of tournament where the best picks get made.
